Impact Bias
From PsychWiki - A Collaborative Psychology Wiki
Impact bias is defined as “the tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future negative events” (Aronson, Wilson, & Akert, 2007, p. 163). This overestimate is a result of the process of reducing cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is a state of unpleasant arousal caused by a conflict in cognitions, which threatens a positive self-conception (Aronson et al., 2007). Typically, the reduction of dissonance is unconscious. Emily Balcetis (2007) analyzed three streams of research that looked at the relation between visual perception, reality, and cognitive dissonance. In the first stream, participants were shown an ambiguous visual. Most of them saw the desired image. The second stream had participants performing objectionable tasks under low choice and high choice conditions. Those who were part of the high choice conditions viewed their situation as less intense; they actually believed that distances they had to go were shorter and that slopes they had to climb were shallower (Balcetis, 2007). In the last stream, participants were shown several objects and viewed the desired objects as closer. In such examples as these, it becomes apparent that the reduction of cognitive dissonance is more efficient when unconscious. If one of the participants in the second stream of research consciously attempted to visually make a distance shorter, they would be unlikely to have positive results, or any results at all. Because we don’t realize that we are reducing dissonance, we can’t predict doing so in the future (Aronson et al., 2007). For this reason, we experience impact bias.
Not only do we overreach in predictions of our own emotions, but we also exhibit impact bias in affective forecasts of others (Pollmann, Finkenauer, 2009). It would seem that this would cause misunderstandings between people and negative interactions. In actuality, it may work out better for social relationships (Pollmann et al., 2009). This is because even though the prediction may be incorrect, the subject of these predictions is also exhibiting impact bias. Thus, the predictions match up and the actor may relate and empathize better with the subject.
However, research by Kent Lam (2005) suggests that certain groups of people may be less susceptible to impact bias. He points out that Westerners tend to have a focalistic outlook whereas East Asians tend to display more of a holistic view of things. Because of this holistic view, East Asians are able to see the whole picture and thus avoid impact bias (Lam, 2005). In the first part of the study, when left to their own devices, the Westerners fell prey to impact bias while the East Asians were more accurate in their predictions. When they were manipulated into becoming defocused, Westerners became as accurate as East Asians in their estimation of emotional reactions in the future.
Example - Research
Kerry Kawakami and his colleagues did a recent study on racism and why it has continued to be so apparent in our supposedly egalitarian society (2009). Many people believe that racism is no longer prevalent in our society. If this is so, why do 50% of black people report experiencing racism during daily activities such as eating out or shopping, and about a third of white people report hearing anti-black slurs at work (Kawakami, Dunn, Karmali, Dovidio, 2009)? Their hypothesis was that people tend to overestimate their disconcertment and degree of reaction in response to a racist comment. This could be a reason that racism is so prevalent compared to the supposed level; it is looked down upon but not often enough rebuked or negatively responded to. The methods used in the study were surveys and the observational method. A confound is defined as “[existing] if something other than the intended constructs exist in the materials or procedures to impacts the independent variable or dependent variable” (Stenstrom, 2009). Due to the possibility of confounds, the experimenters could not survey the participants on their predictions prior to the experiment, so they randomly assigned the 120 participants to be either “forecasters” or “experiencers”. The “forecasters” were to take the survey and predict affective and behavioral responses and the “experiencers” were exposed to different degrees of racial slurs towards a “black confederate” from who was introduced as a “white confederate”. The “experiencers” took a survey pertaining to their affect afterwards and also had to choose one of the confederates as a partner for an anagram activity following the racial comment. If the “forecasters” truly overestimated affective and behavioral responses to racial comments, it would be a display of impact bias, which is, as defined before, “the tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future negative events” (Aronson et al., 2007, p. 163). In the results, the “forecasters” predicted their affective responses as twice that of the actual “experiencers”. In terms of behavior, coded as choosing either the “black confederate” or the “white confederate”, the “forecasters” were off by over 50% in regards to the occurrence with a moderate racial slur. They overestimated by about 30% in the extreme racial slur incident. Despite the common view of racism and its repulsive reputation, people exhibit impact bias and are in fact not as distressed as they would like to believe (Kawakami et al., 2009).
Example – Real Life
An old friend, John Parker, recently transferred to CalPoly SLO. Parker had been attending CSULA for some time and made many friends as well as developed good relationships with professors; he had no desire to transfer. However, his parents deemed it necessary for him to be properly trained for his desired career, so he obliged them. He was very disappointed with his situation and moped around in the remaining weeks, reluctant to go out with friends or even keep his surroundings tidy. Surprisingly, the week after Parker moved in to the CalPoly SLO dorms, his behavior returned to normal. He no longer experienced mood swings, or displayed antisocial behavior. In fact, he communicated to his former friends how happy he was at CalPoly SLO and how satisfied he was with his classes and the “feeling of independence” that came with living in the dorms. How did this severe change happen within a matter of weeks? Due to a number of factors, this student was exhibiting impact bias. One of the reasons was probably focalism, the tendency to center all attention on one detail (Lam, 2005). Parker had been focusing solely on the distance that would be between him and his friends and what he thought he would lose in the process of relocating. This may have been avoided by adapting a more holistic view: considering the positive aspects of a fresh, new start, investigating the faculty, and other such possibilities. Another key solution is awareness. A commonly stated reason for impact bias is that humans are unconscious of reducing dissonance and, therefore, are unable to predict reducing it in the future (Aronson et al., 2007). If made aware of this fact, humans have the potential to take more control over their emotions and behavior.
References
Aronson, E., Wilson, T. D., & Akert, R. M. (2007). Social Psychology. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.
Balcetis, E.E. (2007). Motivated visual perception: How we see what we want to see. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B: The Sciences and Engineering, 67(7B), 4153.
Lam, K. C. H. (2005). Cultural Differences in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Focalism. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(9), p. 1296-1309.
Kawakami, K., Dunn, E., Karmali, F., Dovidio, J.F. (2009). Mispredicting Affective and Behavioral Responses to Racism. Science, 323(5911), p. 276-278.
Pollmann, M, & Finkenauer, C. (2009). Empathic forecasting: How do we predict other people’s feelings? Cognition & Emotion, 23(5), p. 978-1001.
Stenstrom, D. (2009, September). Psy 322 social psychology fall 2009. Retrieved from http://www.psychwiki.com/wiki/PSY_322_Social_Psychology_Fall_2009
◄ Back to Fall 2009 PSY 322 Assignment page
